Recent-results contrast
Verified source factNottingham Forest FC: 4-3-3; Manchester United FC: 6-2-2 across last 10 league matches.
FOOTBALL
Nott'm Forest
Man Utd
Nott'm Forest vs Man Utd
The City Ground · Sat, Feb 20, 3:00 PM UTC
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Football
Nott'm ForestMan Utd
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Checking eligible predictions for Nott'm Forest vs Man Utd…
FansSpace Intelligence
Validated forecast + verified evidenceFansSpace Snapshot · what matters now
No clear favourite
Average points scored separates the participants most clearly: Man Utd 1.6 points versus Nott'm Forest 1 points, using the displayed verified samples. The released model nevertheless weighs the full evaluated factor set and makes no clear favourite.
No clear favouriteAverage points scored: Nott'm Forest 1 points vs Man Utd 1.6 pointsNottingham Forest FC 4-3-3; Manchester United FC 6-2-2 in their latest verified league sample.
The FansSpace Edge
Validated predictionNo clear favourite
Average points scored separates the participants most clearly: Man Utd 1.6 points versus Nott'm Forest 1 points, using the displayed verified samples.
Nott'm Forest36%
Draw25%
Man Utd39%
Reconciled comparison
Average points scored
1 pointsNott'm Forest · n=4
1.6 pointsMan Utd · n=5
Average points margin
-0.25 pointsNott'm Forest · n=4
0 pointsMan Utd · n=5
Average points conceded
1.25 pointsNott'm Forest · n=4
1.6 pointsMan Utd · n=5
Season win rate
25%Nott'm Forest · n=4
20%Man Utd · n=5
FansSpace Momentum
Season win rate momentum
Every point is a time-ordered verified event. Lines connect observations only; they are not smoothed or projected.
Nott'm Forest was unchanged from 0% to 0%. Man Utd was unchanged from 0% to 0%.
Nott'm Forest · n=4Man Utd · n=5
8/22/2026 → 9/20/2026Axis 0–100 percent
Accessible observation details
- Nott'm Forest · 8/22/2026 · 0 percent · L
- Nott'm Forest · 8/29/2026 · 0 percent · D
- Nott'm Forest · 9/12/2026 · 100 percent · W
- Nott'm Forest · 9/19/2026 · 0 percent · L
- Man Utd · 8/22/2026 · 0 percent · L
- Man Utd · 8/30/2026 · 100 percent · W
- Man Utd · 9/6/2026 · 0 percent · D
- Man Utd · 9/13/2026 · 0 percent · L
- Man Utd · 9/20/2026 · 0 percent · D
FansSpace Match DNA
What makes this matchup distinctive
Attack versus resistance
FansSpace calculationNottingham Forest FC average 2.00 goals scored per match against an Manchester United FC record of 1.30 conceded; the reverse matchup is 2.00 scored versus 1.20 conceded.
Venue-specific pressure
FansSpace calculationNottingham Forest FC's latest 10 verified home matches produced 1-4-5; Manchester United FC's latest 10 verified away matches produced 4-4-2.
Latest verified meeting
Verified source factManchester United FC 3-2 Nottingham Forest FC on 17 May 2026.
FansSpace What to Watch
Factors that could matter
- 1
Recency-weighted home and away scoring
Venue can change scoring and win rates, so the model evaluates the role each participant has in this fixture.
tested model factor
- 2
Chronological opponent-adjusted team rating
It discounts results earned against weaker opposition, making recent records more comparable.
tested model factor
- 3
Recent-results contrast
Nottingham Forest FC: 4-3-3; Manchester United FC: 6-2-2 across last 10 league matches.
descriptive contrast
FansSpace Outcome Paths
Most plausible scorelines
The leading scorelines use fitted goal intensities. Their probabilities are distinct paths and are not resampled winner probabilities.
Expected total: 2.9 goals · 80% fitted range 1.0 to 5.0 · n=6,098
Nottingham Forest FC 1–1 Manchester United FC11.6%
Nottingham Forest FC 1–2 Manchester United FC8.5%
Nottingham Forest FC 0–1 Manchester United FC8.2%
Nottingham Forest FC 2–1 Manchester United FC8.2%
Nottingham Forest FC 1–0 Manchester United FC7.9%
Behind the Insight · how FansSpace knows this
Evidence and calculation
Sources: OpenFootball, FansSpace validated model output.
Observation period: 8/22/2026–9/19/2026.
Football scoring model: estimates each team’s scoring rate from earlier results, opponent strength and home/away effects, then converts possible scorelines into win, draw and loss chances.
In an internal time-ordered test of 786 past events, this model performed better than its comparison model. That is useful evidence, but it is not an independent audit or a promise about this event.
Quality and limitations
Internal chronological test: 786 held-out forecasts · Apr 26, 2023–Sep 20, 2026.
Brier score 0.584 · Recorded comparison benchmark 0.667 · calibration gap 2.5%.
The verified match count differs between participants; each denominator is shown.
Composition fansspace-intelligence-composition-v2 · calculated 10/27/2026, 11:19:46 PM · freshness delayed.
FansSpace Event Companion · weeks away
Your event briefing
History & records
- • Founded: 1894
Venue / location
- • The City Ground
Sources: Competition information · checked 10/19/2026
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Updated Oct 27, 2026, 8:12 PM
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