Recent-results contrast
Verified source factLeeds United FC: 5-4-1; Aston Villa FC: 4-1-5 across last 10 league matches.
FOOTBALL
Leeds
Aston Villa
Leeds vs Aston Villa
Elland Road · Sat, Feb 20, 3:00 PM UTC
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Football
LeedsAston Villa
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Checking eligible predictions for Leeds vs Aston Villa…
FansSpace Intelligence
Validated forecast + verified evidenceFansSpace Snapshot · what matters now
Leeds have a narrow statistical edge
Average points margin separates the participants most clearly: Leeds 1 points versus Aston Villa -1.25 points, using the displayed verified samples. The released model nevertheless weighs the full evaluated factor set and makes leeds have a narrow statistical edge.
Leeds have a narrow statistical edgeAverage points margin: Leeds 1 points vs Aston Villa -1.25 pointsLeeds United FC 5-4-1; Aston Villa FC 4-1-5 in their latest verified league sample.
The FansSpace Edge
Validated predictionLeeds have a narrow statistical edge
Average points margin separates the participants most clearly: Leeds 1 points versus Aston Villa -1.25 points, using the displayed verified samples.
Leeds43%
Draw24%
Aston Villa33%
Reconciled comparison
Average points margin
1 pointsLeeds · n=4
-1.25 pointsAston Villa · n=4
Average points conceded
0.75 pointsLeeds · n=4
2.25 pointsAston Villa · n=4
Season win rate
50%Leeds · n=4
25%Aston Villa · n=4
Average points scored
1.75 pointsLeeds · n=4
1 pointsAston Villa · n=4
FansSpace Momentum
Season win rate momentum
Every point is a time-ordered verified event. Lines connect observations only; they are not smoothed or projected.
Leeds was unchanged from 100% to 100%. Aston Villa rose from 0% to 100%.
Leeds · n=4Aston Villa · n=4
8/22/2026 → 9/19/2026Axis 0–100 percent
Accessible observation details
- Leeds · 8/22/2026 · 100 percent · W
- Leeds · 8/30/2026 · 0 percent · D
- Leeds · 9/5/2026 · 0 percent · D
- Leeds · 9/14/2026 · 100 percent · W
- Aston Villa · 8/23/2026 · 0 percent · L
- Aston Villa · 8/31/2026 · 0 percent · L
- Aston Villa · 9/12/2026 · 0 percent · L
- Aston Villa · 9/19/2026 · 100 percent · W
FansSpace Match DNA
What makes this matchup distinctive
Attack versus resistance
FansSpace calculationLeeds United FC average 1.70 goals scored per match against an Aston Villa FC record of 2.00 conceded; the reverse matchup is 1.70 scored versus 1.00 conceded.
Venue-specific pressure
FansSpace calculationLeeds United FC's latest 10 verified home matches produced 6-1-3; Aston Villa FC's latest 10 verified away matches produced 3-3-4.
Latest verified meeting
Verified source factAston Villa FC 1-1 Leeds United FC on 21 Feb 2026.
FansSpace What to Watch
Factors that could matter
- 1
Recency-weighted home and away scoring
Venue can change scoring and win rates, so the model evaluates the role each participant has in this fixture.
tested model factor
- 2
Chronological opponent-adjusted team rating
It discounts results earned against weaker opposition, making recent records more comparable.
tested model factor
- 3
Recent-results contrast
Leeds United FC: 5-4-1; Aston Villa FC: 4-1-5 across last 10 league matches.
descriptive contrast
FansSpace Outcome Paths
Most plausible scorelines
The leading scorelines use fitted goal intensities. Their probabilities are distinct paths and are not resampled winner probabilities.
Expected total: 3.0 goals · 80% fitted range 1.0 to 5.0 · n=6,098
Leeds United FC 1–1 Aston Villa FC11.1%
Leeds United FC 2–1 Aston Villa FC8.9%
Leeds United FC 1–0 Aston Villa FC7.9%
Leeds United FC 1–2 Aston Villa FC7.8%
Leeds United FC 0–1 Aston Villa FC6.9%
Behind the Insight · how FansSpace knows this
Evidence and calculation
Sources: OpenFootball, FansSpace validated model output.
Observation period: 8/23/2026–9/14/2026.
Football scoring model: estimates each team’s scoring rate from earlier results, opponent strength and home/away effects, then converts possible scorelines into win, draw and loss chances.
In an internal time-ordered test of 786 past events, this model performed better than its comparison model. That is useful evidence, but it is not an independent audit or a promise about this event.
Quality and limitations
Internal chronological test: 786 held-out forecasts · Apr 26, 2023–Sep 20, 2026.
Brier score 0.584 · Recorded comparison benchmark 0.667 · calibration gap 2.5%.
Composition fansspace-intelligence-composition-v2 · calculated 10/27/2026, 11:26:49 PM · freshness fresh.
FansSpace Event Companion · weeks away
Your event briefing
Available recent results
The available samples are incomplete or not comparable, so FansSpace is not naming an in-form side.
Aston Villa
D W L D L
recent events; most recent first
Venue / location
- • Elland Road
Sources: Competition information · checked 10/27/2026
Fan community
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Updated Oct 27, 2026, 8:16 PM
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