Recent-results contrast
Verified source factNottingham Forest FC: 4-3-3; Sunderland AFC: 3-2-5 across last 10 league matches.
FOOTBALL
Nottingham Forest FC
Sunderland AFC
Nottingham Forest FC vs Sunderland AFC
England · Sat, Apr 24, 2027, 2:00 PM
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Nottingham Forest FCSunderland AFC
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FansSpace Intelligence
Validated forecast + verified evidenceFansSpace Snapshot · what matters now
Nottingham Forest FC have a narrow statistical edge
Average points margin separates the participants most clearly: Nottingham Forest FC -0.25 points versus Sunderland AFC -0.8 points, using the displayed verified samples. The released model nevertheless weighs the full evaluated factor set and makes nottingham forest fc have a narrow statistical edge.
Nottingham Forest FC have a narrow statistical edgeAverage points margin: Nottingham Forest FC -0.25 points vs Sunderland AFC -0.8 pointsNottingham Forest FC 4-3-3; Sunderland AFC 3-2-5 in their latest verified league sample.
The FansSpace Edge
Validated predictionNottingham Forest FC have a narrow statistical edge
Average points margin separates the participants most clearly: Nottingham Forest FC -0.25 points versus Sunderland AFC -0.8 points, using the displayed verified samples.
Nottingham Forest FC49%
Draw24%
Sunderland AFC27%
Reconciled comparison
Average points margin
-0.25 pointsNottingham Forest FC · n=4
-0.8 pointsSunderland AFC · n=5
Average points conceded
1.25 pointsNottingham Forest FC · n=4
2 pointsSunderland AFC · n=5
Season win rate
25%Nottingham Forest FC · n=4
20%Sunderland AFC · n=5
Average points scored
1 pointsNottingham Forest FC · n=4
1.2 pointsSunderland AFC · n=5
FansSpace Momentum
Season win rate momentum
Every point is a time-ordered verified event. Lines connect observations only; they are not smoothed or projected.
Nottingham Forest FC was unchanged from 0% to 0%. Sunderland AFC was unchanged from 0% to 0%.
Nottingham Forest FC · n=4Sunderland AFC · n=5
8/22/2026 → 9/20/2026Axis 0–100 percent
Accessible observation details
- Nottingham Forest FC · 8/22/2026 · 0 percent · L
- Nottingham Forest FC · 8/29/2026 · 0 percent · D
- Nottingham Forest FC · 9/12/2026 · 100 percent · W
- Nottingham Forest FC · 9/19/2026 · 0 percent · L
- Sunderland AFC · 8/22/2026 · 0 percent · L
- Sunderland AFC · 8/30/2026 · 100 percent · W
- Sunderland AFC · 9/5/2026 · 0 percent · D
- Sunderland AFC · 9/12/2026 · 0 percent · L
- Sunderland AFC · 9/20/2026 · 0 percent · L
FansSpace Match DNA
What makes this matchup distinctive
Attack versus resistance
FansSpace calculationNottingham Forest FC average 2.00 goals scored per match against an Sunderland AFC record of 2.20 conceded; the reverse matchup is 1.50 scored versus 1.20 conceded.
Venue-specific pressure
FansSpace calculationNottingham Forest FC's latest 10 verified home matches produced 1-4-5; Sunderland AFC's latest 10 verified away matches produced 3-3-4.
Latest verified meeting
Verified source factSunderland AFC 0-5 Nottingham Forest FC on 24 Apr 2026.
FansSpace What to Watch
Factors that could matter
- 1
Recency-weighted home and away scoring
Venue can change scoring and win rates, so the model evaluates the role each participant has in this fixture.
tested model factor
- 2
Chronological opponent-adjusted team rating
It discounts results earned against weaker opposition, making recent records more comparable.
tested model factor
- 3
Recent-results contrast
Nottingham Forest FC: 4-3-3; Sunderland AFC: 3-2-5 across last 10 league matches.
descriptive contrast
FansSpace Outcome Paths
Most plausible scorelines
The leading scorelines use fitted goal intensities. Their probabilities are distinct paths and are not resampled winner probabilities.
Expected total: 2.9 goals · 80% fitted range 1.0 to 5.0 · n=6,098
Nottingham Forest FC 1–1 Sunderland AFC11.2%
Nottingham Forest FC 2–1 Sunderland AFC9.6%
Nottingham Forest FC 1–0 Sunderland AFC9.4%
Nottingham Forest FC 2–0 Sunderland AFC8.0%
Nottingham Forest FC 1–2 Sunderland AFC6.7%
Behind the Insight · how FansSpace knows this
Evidence and calculation
Sources: OpenFootball, FansSpace validated model output.
Observation period: 8/22/2026–9/19/2026.
Football scoring model: estimates each team’s scoring rate from earlier results, opponent strength and home/away effects, then converts possible scorelines into win, draw and loss chances.
In an internal time-ordered test of 786 past events, this model performed better than its comparison model. That is useful evidence, but it is not an independent audit or a promise about this event.
Quality and limitations
Internal chronological test: 786 held-out forecasts · Apr 26, 2023–Sep 20, 2026.
Brier score 0.584 · Recorded comparison benchmark 0.667 · calibration gap 2.5%.
The verified match count differs between participants; each denominator is shown.
Composition fansspace-intelligence-composition-v2 · calculated 10/28/2026, 12:49:44 AM · freshness delayed.
FansSpace Event Companion · weeks away
Your event briefing
Latest news & context
- 1.Official status: TIMED
- 2.Nottingham Forest FC vs Sunderland AFC: TIMED
Participants to watch
Nottingham Forest FC vs Sunderland AFC: TIMED.
- • Nottingham Forest FC
- • Sunderland AFC
History & records
- • Founded: 1894
Venue / location
- • England
Fan community
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Updated Oct 27, 2026, 8:44 PM
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