Recent-results contrast
Verified source factEverton FC: 2-4-4; AFC Bournemouth: 2-6-2 across last 10 league matches.
FOOTBALL
Everton FC
AFC Bournemouth
Everton FC vs AFC Bournemouth
England · Sat, Apr 17, 2027, 2:00 PM
Event preview
Football
Everton FCAFC Bournemouth
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FansSpace Intelligence
Validated forecast + verified evidenceFansSpace Snapshot · what matters now
No clear favourite
Average points margin separates the participants most clearly: Everton FC 0.75 points versus AFC Bournemouth -0.4 points, using the displayed verified samples. The released model nevertheless weighs the full evaluated factor set and makes no clear favourite.
No clear favouriteAverage points margin: Everton FC 0.75 points vs AFC Bournemouth -0.4 pointsEverton FC 2-4-4; AFC Bournemouth 2-6-2 in their latest verified league sample.
The FansSpace Edge
Validated predictionNo clear favourite
Average points margin separates the participants most clearly: Everton FC 0.75 points versus AFC Bournemouth -0.4 points, using the displayed verified samples.
Everton FC40%
Draw25%
AFC Bournemouth35%
Reconciled comparison
Average points margin
0.75 pointsEverton FC · n=4
-0.4 pointsAFC Bournemouth · n=5
Season win rate
50%Everton FC · n=4
0%AFC Bournemouth · n=5
Average points conceded
0.75 pointsEverton FC · n=4
1.6 pointsAFC Bournemouth · n=5
Average points scored
1.5 pointsEverton FC · n=4
1.2 pointsAFC Bournemouth · n=5
FansSpace Momentum
Season win rate momentum
Every point is a time-ordered verified event. Lines connect observations only; they are not smoothed or projected.
Everton FC was unchanged from 100% to 100%. AFC Bournemouth was unchanged from 0% to 0%.
Everton FC · n=4AFC Bournemouth · n=5
8/22/2026 → 9/20/2026Axis 0–100 percent
Accessible observation details
- Everton FC · 8/22/2026 · 100 percent · W
- Everton FC · 8/29/2026 · 0 percent · D
- Everton FC · 9/6/2026 · 0 percent · D
- Everton FC · 9/19/2026 · 100 percent · W
- AFC Bournemouth · 8/23/2026 · 0 percent · L
- AFC Bournemouth · 8/29/2026 · 0 percent · D
- AFC Bournemouth · 9/5/2026 · 0 percent · D
- AFC Bournemouth · 9/12/2026 · 0 percent · D
- AFC Bournemouth · 9/20/2026 · 0 percent · L
FansSpace Match DNA
What makes this matchup distinctive
Attack versus resistance
FansSpace calculationEverton FC average 1.40 goals scored per match against an AFC Bournemouth record of 1.20 conceded; the reverse matchup is 1.40 scored versus 1.60 conceded.
Venue-specific pressure
FansSpace calculationEverton FC's latest 10 verified home matches produced 4-2-4; AFC Bournemouth's latest 10 verified away matches produced 5-4-1.
Latest verified meeting
Verified source factAFC Bournemouth 1-1 Everton FC on 29 Aug 2026.
FansSpace What to Watch
Factors that could matter
- 1
Recency-weighted home and away scoring
Venue can change scoring and win rates, so the model evaluates the role each participant has in this fixture.
tested model factor
- 2
Chronological opponent-adjusted team rating
It discounts results earned against weaker opposition, making recent records more comparable.
tested model factor
- 3
Recent-results contrast
Everton FC: 2-4-4; AFC Bournemouth: 2-6-2 across last 10 league matches.
descriptive contrast
FansSpace Outcome Paths
Most plausible scorelines
The leading scorelines use fitted goal intensities. Their probabilities are distinct paths and are not resampled winner probabilities.
Expected total: 2.9 goals · 80% fitted range 1.0 to 5.0 · n=6,098
Everton FC 1–1 AFC Bournemouth11.5%
Everton FC 2–1 AFC Bournemouth8.7%
Everton FC 1–0 AFC Bournemouth8.2%
Everton FC 1–2 AFC Bournemouth8.1%
Everton FC 0–1 AFC Bournemouth7.6%
Behind the Insight · how FansSpace knows this
Evidence and calculation
Sources: OpenFootball, FansSpace validated model output.
Observation period: 8/23/2026–9/19/2026.
Football scoring model: estimates each team’s scoring rate from earlier results, opponent strength and home/away effects, then converts possible scorelines into win, draw and loss chances.
In an internal time-ordered test of 786 past events, this model performed better than its comparison model. That is useful evidence, but it is not an independent audit or a promise about this event.
Quality and limitations
Internal chronological test: 786 held-out forecasts · Apr 26, 2023–Sep 20, 2026.
Brier score 0.584 · Recorded comparison benchmark 0.667 · calibration gap 2.5%.
The verified match count differs between participants; each denominator is shown.
Composition fansspace-intelligence-composition-v2 · calculated 10/28/2026, 12:38:08 AM · freshness delayed.
FansSpace Event Companion · weeks away
Your event briefing
What to know
- 1.AFC Bournemouth would move from 6 to 9 points with a win; with every other points total held unchanged, that corresponds to positions 9–11, depending on tiebreakers.
Match snapshot
Everton FC
- points
- 10
- position
- 8
AFC Bournemouth
- points
- 6
- position
- 15
Latest news & context
- 1.Official status: TIMED
- 2.Everton FC vs AFC Bournemouth: TIMED
FansSpace prediction / outlook
Available standings and recent-form evidence supports a cautious comparison, not a numerical forecast.
- • Everton FC are 8 on 10 points.
- • AFC Bournemouth are 15 on 6 points.
- • Uncertainty: this outlook uses only the labelled table and recent-result inputs; it is not a betting-market forecast.
Why it matters
AFC Bournemouth would move from 6 to 9 points with a win; with every other points total held unchanged, that corresponds to positions 9–11, depending on tiebreakers.
Recent form
AFC Bournemouth
W L L D D
current-season league; most recent first
Everton FC
L D W D D
current-season league; most recent first
Standings context
Leeds United FC
- played
- 7
- points
- 10
- position
- 7
Everton FC
- played
- 7
- points
- 10
- position
- 8
Hull City AFC
- played
- 7
- points
- 9
- position
- 9
Crystal Palace FC
- played
- 7
- points
- 7
- position
- 14
AFC Bournemouth
- played
- 7
- points
- 6
- position
- 15
Coventry City FC
- played
- 6
- points
- 6
- position
- 16
Participants to watch
Everton FC vs AFC Bournemouth: TIMED.
- • Everton FC
- • AFC Bournemouth
What a result could mean
- • AFC Bournemouth would move from 6 to 9 points with a win; with every other points total held unchanged, that corresponds to positions 9–11, depending on tiebreakers.
What happens next
- • AFC Bournemouth would move from 6 to 9 points with a win; with every other points total held unchanged, that corresponds to positions 9–11, depending on tiebreakers.
History & records
- • Founded: 1894
Venue / location
- • England
Fan community
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Updated Oct 27, 2026, 8:39 PM
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