Recent-results contrast
Verified source factAston Villa FC: 4-1-5; Hull City AFC: 3-2-5 across last 10 league matches.
FOOTBALL
Aston Villa FC
Hull City AFC
Aston Villa FC vs Hull City AFC
England · Sat, Mar 13, 2027, 3:00 PM
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Football
Aston Villa FCHull City AFC
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FansSpace Intelligence
Validated forecast + verified evidenceFansSpace Snapshot · what matters now
Aston Villa FC are favourites
Average points margin separates the participants most clearly: Hull City AFC 0.5 points versus Aston Villa FC -1.25 points, using the displayed verified samples. The released model nevertheless weighs the full evaluated factor set and makes aston villa fc are favourites.
Aston Villa FC are favouritesAverage points margin: Aston Villa FC -1.25 points vs Hull City AFC 0.5 pointsAston Villa FC 4-1-5; Hull City AFC 3-2-5 in their latest verified league sample.
The FansSpace Edge
Validated predictionAston Villa FC are favourites
Average points margin separates the participants most clearly: Hull City AFC 0.5 points versus Aston Villa FC -1.25 points, using the displayed verified samples.
Aston Villa FC51%
Draw23%
Hull City AFC26%
Reconciled comparison
Average points margin
-1.25 pointsAston Villa FC · n=4
0.5 pointsHull City AFC · n=4
Average points conceded
2.25 pointsAston Villa FC · n=4
1 pointsHull City AFC · n=4
Season win rate
25%Aston Villa FC · n=4
50%Hull City AFC · n=4
Average points scored
1 pointsAston Villa FC · n=4
1.5 pointsHull City AFC · n=4
FansSpace Momentum
Season win rate momentum
Every point is a time-ordered verified event. Lines connect observations only; they are not smoothed or projected.
Aston Villa FC rose from 0% to 100%. Hull City AFC fell from 100% to 0%.
Aston Villa FC · n=4Hull City AFC · n=4
8/22/2026 → 9/19/2026Axis 0–100 percent
Accessible observation details
- Aston Villa FC · 8/23/2026 · 0 percent · L
- Aston Villa FC · 8/31/2026 · 0 percent · L
- Aston Villa FC · 9/12/2026 · 0 percent · L
- Aston Villa FC · 9/19/2026 · 100 percent · W
- Hull City AFC · 8/22/2026 · 100 percent · W
- Hull City AFC · 8/29/2026 · 100 percent · W
- Hull City AFC · 9/12/2026 · 0 percent · D
- Hull City AFC · 9/19/2026 · 0 percent · L
FansSpace Match DNA
What makes this matchup distinctive
Attack versus resistance
FansSpace calculationAston Villa FC average 1.70 goals scored per match against an Hull City AFC record of 2.00 conceded; the reverse matchup is 1.00 scored versus 2.00 conceded.
Venue-specific pressure
FansSpace calculationAston Villa FC's latest 10 verified home matches produced 4-1-5; Hull City AFC's latest 10 verified away matches produced 1-2-7.
Latest verified meeting
Verified source factHull City 2-0 Aston Villa on 10 Feb 2015.
FansSpace What to Watch
Factors that could matter
- 1
Recency-weighted home and away scoring
Venue can change scoring and win rates, so the model evaluates the role each participant has in this fixture.
tested model factor
- 2
Chronological opponent-adjusted team rating
It discounts results earned against weaker opposition, making recent records more comparable.
tested model factor
- 3
Recent-results contrast
Aston Villa FC: 4-1-5; Hull City AFC: 3-2-5 across last 10 league matches.
descriptive contrast
FansSpace Outcome Paths
Most plausible scorelines
The leading scorelines use fitted goal intensities. Their probabilities are distinct paths and are not resampled winner probabilities.
Expected total: 3.0 goals · 80% fitted range 1.0 to 5.0 · n=6,098
Aston Villa FC 1–1 Hull City AFC10.8%
Aston Villa FC 2–1 Hull City AFC9.6%
Aston Villa FC 1–0 Hull City AFC8.9%
Aston Villa FC 2–0 Hull City AFC7.9%
Aston Villa FC 1–2 Hull City AFC6.6%
Behind the Insight · how FansSpace knows this
Evidence and calculation
Sources: OpenFootball, FansSpace validated model output.
Observation period: 8/23/2026–9/19/2026.
Football scoring model: estimates each team’s scoring rate from earlier results, opponent strength and home/away effects, then converts possible scorelines into win, draw and loss chances.
In an internal time-ordered test of 786 past events, this model performed better than its comparison model. That is useful evidence, but it is not an independent audit or a promise about this event.
Quality and limitations
Internal chronological test: 786 held-out forecasts · Apr 26, 2023–Sep 20, 2026.
Brier score 0.584 · Recorded comparison benchmark 0.667 · calibration gap 2.5%.
Composition fansspace-intelligence-composition-v2 · calculated 10/27/2026, 11:59:09 PM · freshness delayed.
FansSpace Event Companion · weeks away
Your event briefing
Latest news & context
- 1.Official status: TIMED
- 2.Aston Villa FC vs Hull City AFC: TIMED
Participants to watch
Aston Villa FC vs Hull City AFC: TIMED.
- • Aston Villa FC
- • Hull City AFC
History & records
- • Founded: 1894
Venue / location
- • England
Fan community
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Updated Oct 27, 2026, 8:26 PM
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