Recent-results contrast
Verified source factHull City AFC: 3-2-5; Arsenal FC: 9-0-1 across last 10 league matches.
FOOTBALL
Hull City AFC
Arsenal FC
Hull City AFC vs Arsenal FC
England · Sat, Jan 16, 2027, 3:00 PM
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Football
Hull City AFCArsenal FC
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FansSpace Intelligence
Validated forecast + verified evidenceFansSpace Snapshot · what matters now
Arsenal FC are favourites
Season win rate separates the participants most clearly: Arsenal FC 80% versus Hull City AFC 50%, using the displayed verified samples. The released model nevertheless weighs the full evaluated factor set and makes arsenal fc are favourites.
Arsenal FC are favouritesSeason win rate: Hull City AFC 50% vs Arsenal FC 80%Hull City AFC 3-2-5; Arsenal FC 9-0-1 in their latest verified league sample.
The FansSpace Edge
Validated predictionArsenal FC are favourites
Season win rate separates the participants most clearly: Arsenal FC 80% versus Hull City AFC 50%, using the displayed verified samples.
Hull City AFC25%
Draw24%
Arsenal FC51%
Reconciled comparison
Season win rate
50%Hull City AFC · n=4
80%Arsenal FC · n=5
Average points margin
0.5 pointsHull City AFC · n=4
0.8 pointsArsenal FC · n=5
Average points conceded
1 pointsHull City AFC · n=4
0.8 pointsArsenal FC · n=5
Average points scored
1.5 pointsHull City AFC · n=4
1.6 pointsArsenal FC · n=5
FansSpace Momentum
Season win rate momentum
Every point is a time-ordered verified event. Lines connect observations only; they are not smoothed or projected.
Hull City AFC fell from 100% to 0%. Arsenal FC fell from 100% to 0%.
Hull City AFC · n=4Arsenal FC · n=5
8/21/2026 → 9/19/2026Axis 0–100 percent
Accessible observation details
- Hull City AFC · 8/22/2026 · 100 percent · W
- Hull City AFC · 8/29/2026 · 100 percent · W
- Hull City AFC · 9/12/2026 · 0 percent · D
- Hull City AFC · 9/19/2026 · 0 percent · L
- Arsenal FC · 8/21/2026 · 100 percent · W
- Arsenal FC · 8/31/2026 · 100 percent · W
- Arsenal FC · 9/6/2026 · 100 percent · W
- Arsenal FC · 9/12/2026 · 100 percent · W
- Arsenal FC · 9/19/2026 · 0 percent · L
FansSpace Match DNA
What makes this matchup distinctive
Attack versus resistance
FansSpace calculationHull City AFC average 1.00 goals scored per match against an Arsenal FC record of 0.50 conceded; the reverse matchup is 1.60 scored versus 2.00 conceded.
Venue-specific pressure
FansSpace calculationHull City AFC's latest 10 verified home matches produced 7-1-2; Arsenal FC's latest 10 verified away matches produced 6-2-2.
Latest verified meeting
Verified source factArsenal FC 2-0 Hull City on 11 Feb 2017.
FansSpace What to Watch
Factors that could matter
- 1
Recency-weighted home and away scoring
Venue can change scoring and win rates, so the model evaluates the role each participant has in this fixture.
tested model factor
- 2
Chronological opponent-adjusted team rating
It discounts results earned against weaker opposition, making recent records more comparable.
tested model factor
- 3
Recent-results contrast
Hull City AFC: 3-2-5; Arsenal FC: 9-0-1 across last 10 league matches.
descriptive contrast
FansSpace Outcome Paths
Most plausible scorelines
The leading scorelines use fitted goal intensities. Their probabilities are distinct paths and are not resampled winner probabilities.
Expected total: 2.8 goals · 80% fitted range 1.0 to 5.0 · n=6,098
Hull City AFC 1–1 Arsenal FC11.5%
Hull City AFC 0–1 Arsenal FC10.4%
Hull City AFC 1–2 Arsenal FC9.6%
Hull City AFC 0–2 Arsenal FC8.7%
Hull City AFC 1–0 Arsenal FC6.9%
Behind the Insight · how FansSpace knows this
Evidence and calculation
Sources: OpenFootball, FansSpace validated model output.
Observation period: 8/22/2026–9/19/2026.
Football scoring model: estimates each team’s scoring rate from earlier results, opponent strength and home/away effects, then converts possible scorelines into win, draw and loss chances.
In an internal time-ordered test of 786 past events, this model performed better than its comparison model. That is useful evidence, but it is not an independent audit or a promise about this event.
Quality and limitations
Internal chronological test: 786 held-out forecasts · Apr 26, 2023–Sep 20, 2026.
Brier score 0.584 · Recorded comparison benchmark 0.667 · calibration gap 2.5%.
The verified match count differs between participants; each denominator is shown.
Composition fansspace-intelligence-composition-v2 · calculated 10/27/2026, 10:25:09 PM · freshness delayed.
FansSpace Event Companion · weeks away
Your event briefing
Latest news & context
- 1.Official status: TIMED
- 2.Hull City AFC vs Arsenal FC: TIMED
Participants to watch
Hull City AFC vs Arsenal FC: TIMED.
- • Hull City AFC
- • Arsenal FC
History & records
- • Founded: 1894
Venue / location
- • England
Fan community
- Who will win?
- Which matchup could decide this event?
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Updated Oct 27, 2026, 7:52 PM
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