Recent-results contrast
Verified source factAFC Bournemouth: 2-6-2; Aston Villa FC: 4-1-5 across last 10 league matches.
FOOTBALL
AFC Bournemouth
Aston Villa FC
AFC Bournemouth vs Aston Villa FC
England · Sat, Jan 2, 2027, 5:30 PM
Event preview
Football
AFC BournemouthAston Villa FC
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FansSpace Intelligence
Validated forecast + verified evidenceFansSpace Snapshot · what matters now
AFC Bournemouth have a narrow statistical edge
Season win rate separates the participants most clearly: Aston Villa FC 25% versus AFC Bournemouth 0%, using the displayed verified samples. The released model nevertheless weighs the full evaluated factor set and makes afc bournemouth have a narrow statistical edge.
AFC Bournemouth have a narrow statistical edgeSeason win rate: AFC Bournemouth 0% vs Aston Villa FC 25%AFC Bournemouth 2-6-2; Aston Villa FC 4-1-5 in their latest verified league sample.
The FansSpace Edge
Validated predictionAFC Bournemouth have a narrow statistical edge
Season win rate separates the participants most clearly: Aston Villa FC 25% versus AFC Bournemouth 0%, using the displayed verified samples.
AFC Bournemouth44%
Draw24%
Aston Villa FC32%
Reconciled comparison
Season win rate
0%AFC Bournemouth · n=5
25%Aston Villa FC · n=4
Average points margin
-0.4 pointsAFC Bournemouth · n=5
-1.25 pointsAston Villa FC · n=4
Average points conceded
1.6 pointsAFC Bournemouth · n=5
2.25 pointsAston Villa FC · n=4
Average points scored
1.2 pointsAFC Bournemouth · n=5
1 pointsAston Villa FC · n=4
FansSpace Momentum
Season win rate momentum
Every point is a time-ordered verified event. Lines connect observations only; they are not smoothed or projected.
AFC Bournemouth was unchanged from 0% to 0%. Aston Villa FC rose from 0% to 100%.
AFC Bournemouth · n=5Aston Villa FC · n=4
8/23/2026 → 9/20/2026Axis 0–100 percent
Accessible observation details
- AFC Bournemouth · 8/23/2026 · 0 percent · L
- AFC Bournemouth · 8/29/2026 · 0 percent · D
- AFC Bournemouth · 9/5/2026 · 0 percent · D
- AFC Bournemouth · 9/12/2026 · 0 percent · D
- AFC Bournemouth · 9/20/2026 · 0 percent · L
- Aston Villa FC · 8/23/2026 · 0 percent · L
- Aston Villa FC · 8/31/2026 · 0 percent · L
- Aston Villa FC · 9/12/2026 · 0 percent · L
- Aston Villa FC · 9/19/2026 · 100 percent · W
FansSpace Match DNA
What makes this matchup distinctive
Attack versus resistance
FansSpace calculationAFC Bournemouth average 1.40 goals scored per match against an Aston Villa FC record of 2.00 conceded; the reverse matchup is 1.70 scored versus 1.20 conceded.
Venue-specific pressure
FansSpace calculationAFC Bournemouth's latest 10 verified home matches produced 2-7-1; Aston Villa FC's latest 10 verified away matches produced 3-3-4.
Latest verified meeting
Verified source factAFC Bournemouth 1-1 Aston Villa FC on 7 Feb 2026.
FansSpace What to Watch
Factors that could matter
- 1
Recency-weighted home and away scoring
Venue can change scoring and win rates, so the model evaluates the role each participant has in this fixture.
tested model factor
- 2
Chronological opponent-adjusted team rating
It discounts results earned against weaker opposition, making recent records more comparable.
tested model factor
- 3
Recent-results contrast
AFC Bournemouth: 2-6-2; Aston Villa FC: 4-1-5 across last 10 league matches.
descriptive contrast
Behind the Insight · how FansSpace knows this
Evidence and calculation
Sources: OpenFootball, FansSpace validated model output.
Observation period: 8/23/2026–9/19/2026.
Football scoring model: estimates each team’s scoring rate from earlier results, opponent strength and home/away effects, then converts possible scorelines into win, draw and loss chances.
In an internal time-ordered test of 786 past events, this model performed better than its comparison model. That is useful evidence, but it is not an independent audit or a promise about this event.
Quality and limitations
Internal chronological test: 786 held-out forecasts · Apr 26, 2023–Sep 20, 2026.
Brier score 0.584 · Recorded comparison benchmark 0.667 · calibration gap 2.5%.
The verified match count differs between participants; each denominator is shown.
Outcome Paths are withheld until a validated sport-state distribution adds evidence beyond the released forecast.
Composition fansspace-intelligence-composition-v2 · calculated 10/14/2026, 9:58:20 AM · freshness delayed.
FansSpace Event Companion · weeks away
Your event briefing
What to know
- 1.AFC Bournemouth would move from 6 to 9 points with a win; with every other points total held unchanged, that corresponds to positions 9–11, depending on tiebreakers.
- 2.Aston Villa FC has 2 wins in the last 5 available results.
Match snapshot
AFC Bournemouth
- points
- 6
- position
- 15
Aston Villa FC
- points
- 8
- position
- 12
Latest news & context
- 1.Official status: TIMED
- 2.AFC Bournemouth vs Aston Villa FC: TIMED
FansSpace prediction / outlook
Available standings and recent-form evidence supports a cautious comparison, not a numerical forecast.
- • AFC Bournemouth are 15 on 6 points.
- • Aston Villa FC are 12 on 8 points.
- • Uncertainty: this outlook uses only the labelled table and recent-result inputs; it is not a betting-market forecast.
Why it matters
AFC Bournemouth would move from 6 to 9 points with a win; with every other points total held unchanged, that corresponds to positions 9–11, depending on tiebreakers.
Recent form
AFC Bournemouth
W L L D D
current-season league; most recent first
Aston Villa FC
W D W L D
current-season league; most recent first
Standings context
Newcastle United FC
- played
- 7
- points
- 8
- position
- 11
Aston Villa FC
- played
- 7
- points
- 8
- position
- 12
Manchester United FC
- played
- 7
- points
- 7
- position
- 13
Crystal Palace FC
- played
- 7
- points
- 7
- position
- 14
AFC Bournemouth
- played
- 7
- points
- 6
- position
- 15
Tottenham Hotspur FC
- played
- 7
- points
- 6
- position
- 16
Participants to watch
AFC Bournemouth vs Aston Villa FC: TIMED.
- • AFC Bournemouth
- • Aston Villa FC
What a result could mean
- • AFC Bournemouth would move from 6 to 9 points with a win; with every other points total held unchanged, that corresponds to positions 9–11, depending on tiebreakers.
What happens next
- • AFC Bournemouth would move from 6 to 9 points with a win; with every other points total held unchanged, that corresponds to positions 9–11, depending on tiebreakers.
History & records
- • Founded: 1894
Venue / location
- • England
Fan community
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Updated Oct 23, 2026, 9:45 AM
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