Recent-results contrast
Verified source factEverton FC: 2-4-4; Sunderland AFC: 3-2-5 across last 10 league matches.
FOOTBALL
Everton FC
Sunderland AFC
Everton FC vs Sunderland AFC
England · Sat, Dec 26, 2026, 3:00 PM
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Football
Everton FCSunderland AFC
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FansSpace Intelligence
Validated forecast + verified evidenceFansSpace Snapshot · what matters now
Everton FC have a narrow statistical edge
Average points margin separates the participants most clearly: Everton FC 0.75 points versus Sunderland AFC -0.8 points, using the displayed verified samples. The released model nevertheless weighs the full evaluated factor set and makes everton fc have a narrow statistical edge.
Everton FC have a narrow statistical edgeAverage points margin: Everton FC 0.75 points vs Sunderland AFC -0.8 pointsEverton FC 2-4-4; Sunderland AFC 3-2-5 in their latest verified league sample.
The FansSpace Edge
Validated predictionEverton FC have a narrow statistical edge
Average points margin separates the participants most clearly: Everton FC 0.75 points versus Sunderland AFC -0.8 points, using the displayed verified samples.
Everton FC50%
Draw24%
Sunderland AFC26%
Reconciled comparison
Average points margin
0.75 pointsEverton FC · n=4
-0.8 pointsSunderland AFC · n=5
Average points conceded
0.75 pointsEverton FC · n=4
2 pointsSunderland AFC · n=5
Season win rate
50%Everton FC · n=4
20%Sunderland AFC · n=5
Average points scored
1.5 pointsEverton FC · n=4
1.2 pointsSunderland AFC · n=5
FansSpace Momentum
Season win rate momentum
Every point is a time-ordered verified event. Lines connect observations only; they are not smoothed or projected.
Everton FC was unchanged from 100% to 100%. Sunderland AFC was unchanged from 0% to 0%.
Everton FC · n=4Sunderland AFC · n=5
8/22/2026 → 9/20/2026Axis 0–100 percent
Accessible observation details
- Everton FC · 8/22/2026 · 100 percent · W
- Everton FC · 8/29/2026 · 0 percent · D
- Everton FC · 9/6/2026 · 0 percent · D
- Everton FC · 9/19/2026 · 100 percent · W
- Sunderland AFC · 8/22/2026 · 0 percent · L
- Sunderland AFC · 8/30/2026 · 100 percent · W
- Sunderland AFC · 9/5/2026 · 0 percent · D
- Sunderland AFC · 9/12/2026 · 0 percent · L
- Sunderland AFC · 9/20/2026 · 0 percent · L
FansSpace Match DNA
What makes this matchup distinctive
Attack versus resistance
FansSpace calculationEverton FC average 1.40 goals scored per match against an Sunderland AFC record of 2.20 conceded; the reverse matchup is 1.50 scored versus 1.60 conceded.
Venue-specific pressure
FansSpace calculationEverton FC's latest 10 verified home matches produced 4-2-4; Sunderland AFC's latest 10 verified away matches produced 3-3-4.
Latest verified meeting
Verified source factEverton FC 1-3 Sunderland AFC on 17 May 2026.
FansSpace What to Watch
Factors that could matter
- 1
Recency-weighted home and away scoring
Venue can change scoring and win rates, so the model evaluates the role each participant has in this fixture.
tested model factor
- 2
Chronological opponent-adjusted team rating
It discounts results earned against weaker opposition, making recent records more comparable.
tested model factor
- 3
Recent-results contrast
Everton FC: 2-4-4; Sunderland AFC: 3-2-5 across last 10 league matches.
descriptive contrast
FansSpace Outcome Paths
Most plausible scorelines
The leading scorelines use fitted goal intensities. Their probabilities are distinct paths and are not resampled winner probabilities.
Expected total: 2.9 goals · 80% fitted range 1.0 to 5.0 · n=6,098
Everton FC 1–1 Sunderland AFC11.2%
Everton FC 2–1 Sunderland AFC9.6%
Everton FC 1–0 Sunderland AFC9.4%
Everton FC 2–0 Sunderland AFC8.1%
Everton FC 1–2 Sunderland AFC6.6%
Behind the Insight · how FansSpace knows this
Evidence and calculation
Sources: OpenFootball, FansSpace validated model output.
Observation period: 8/22/2026–9/19/2026.
Football scoring model: estimates each team’s scoring rate from earlier results, opponent strength and home/away effects, then converts possible scorelines into win, draw and loss chances.
In an internal time-ordered test of 786 past events, this model performed better than its comparison model. That is useful evidence, but it is not an independent audit or a promise about this event.
Quality and limitations
Internal chronological test: 786 held-out forecasts · Apr 26, 2023–Sep 20, 2026.
Brier score 0.584 · Recorded comparison benchmark 0.667 · calibration gap 2.5%.
The verified match count differs between participants; each denominator is shown.
Composition fansspace-intelligence-composition-v2 · calculated 10/27/2026, 9:13:22 PM · freshness delayed.
FansSpace Event Companion · weeks away
Your event briefing
Latest news & context
- 1.Official status: TIMED
- 2.Everton FC vs Sunderland AFC: TIMED
Participants to watch
Everton FC vs Sunderland AFC: TIMED.
- • Everton FC
- • Sunderland AFC
History & records
- • Founded: 1894
Venue / location
- • England
Fan community
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Updated Oct 27, 2026, 7:35 PM
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