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Arsenal FC crest
VS
AFC Bournemouth crest

Arsenal FC

AFC Bournemouth

Arsenal FC vs AFC Bournemouth

England · Sun, Dec 13, 2026, 2:00 PM

Event preview

Football

Scheduled
Arsenal FCAFC Bournemouth
Original source

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Checking eligible predictions for Arsenal FC vs AFC Bournemouth…

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FansSpace Intelligence

Validated forecast + verified evidence

FansSpace Snapshot · what matters now

Arsenal FC are favourites

Average points margin separates the participants most clearly: Arsenal FC 0.8 points versus AFC Bournemouth -0.4 points, using the displayed verified samples. The released model nevertheless weighs the full evaluated factor set and makes arsenal fc are favourites.

Arsenal FC are favouritesAverage points margin: Arsenal FC 0.8 points vs AFC Bournemouth -0.4 pointsArsenal FC 9-0-1; AFC Bournemouth 2-6-2 in their latest verified league sample.

The FansSpace Edge

Validated prediction

Arsenal FC are favourites

Average points margin separates the participants most clearly: Arsenal FC 0.8 points versus AFC Bournemouth -0.4 points, using the displayed verified samples.

Arsenal FC61%
Draw21%
AFC Bournemouth18%

Reconciled comparison

Average points margin
0.8 pointsArsenal FC · n=5
-0.4 pointsAFC Bournemouth · n=5
Season win rate
80%Arsenal FC · n=5
0%AFC Bournemouth · n=5
Average points conceded
0.8 pointsArsenal FC · n=5
1.6 pointsAFC Bournemouth · n=5
Average points scored
1.6 pointsArsenal FC · n=5
1.2 pointsAFC Bournemouth · n=5

FansSpace Momentum

Season win rate momentum

FansSpace calculation

Every point is a time-ordered verified event. Lines connect observations only; they are not smoothed or projected.

Arsenal FC fell from 100% to 0%. AFC Bournemouth was unchanged from 0% to 0%.

FansSpace Match DNA

What makes this matchup distinctive

Recent-results contrast

Verified source fact

Arsenal FC: 9-0-1; AFC Bournemouth: 2-6-2 across last 10 league matches.

Attack versus resistance

FansSpace calculation

Arsenal FC average 1.60 goals scored per match against an AFC Bournemouth record of 1.20 conceded; the reverse matchup is 1.40 scored versus 0.50 conceded.

Venue-specific pressure

FansSpace calculation

Arsenal FC's latest 10 verified home matches produced 8-0-2; AFC Bournemouth's latest 10 verified away matches produced 5-4-1.

Latest verified meeting

Verified source fact

Arsenal FC 1-2 AFC Bournemouth on 11 Apr 2026.

FansSpace What to Watch

Factors that could matter

  1. 1

    Recency-weighted home and away scoring

    Venue can change scoring and win rates, so the model evaluates the role each participant has in this fixture.

    tested model factor

  2. 2

    Chronological opponent-adjusted team rating

    It discounts results earned against weaker opposition, making recent records more comparable.

    tested model factor

  3. 3

    Recent-results contrast

    Arsenal FC: 9-0-1; AFC Bournemouth: 2-6-2 across last 10 league matches.

    descriptive contrast

Behind the Insight · how FansSpace knows this

Evidence and calculation

Sources: OpenFootball, FansSpace validated model output.

Observation period: 8/23/2026–9/19/2026.

Football scoring model: estimates each team’s scoring rate from earlier results, opponent strength and home/away effects, then converts possible scorelines into win, draw and loss chances.

In an internal time-ordered test of 786 past events, this model performed better than its comparison model. That is useful evidence, but it is not an independent audit or a promise about this event.

Quality and limitations

Internal chronological test: 786 held-out forecasts · Apr 26, 2023–Sep 20, 2026.

Brier score 0.584 · Recorded comparison benchmark 0.667 · calibration gap 2.5%.

Outcome Paths are withheld until a validated sport-state distribution adds evidence beyond the released forecast.

Composition fansspace-intelligence-composition-v2 · calculated 10/14/2026, 10:36:25 AM · freshness delayed.

FansSpace Event Companion · weeks away

Your event briefing

What to know

  1. 1.AFC Bournemouth would move from 9 to 12 points with a win; with every other points total held unchanged, that corresponds to position 6.
  2. 2.Arsenal FC has 4 wins in the last 5 available results.

Match snapshot

Arsenal FC

points
15
position
2

AFC Bournemouth

points
3
overall
0-3-3
position
18

Latest news & context

  1. 1.Official status: TIMED
  2. 2.Arsenal FC vs AFC Bournemouth: TIMED

Why it matters

AFC Bournemouth would move from 9 to 12 points with a win; with every other points total held unchanged, that corresponds to position 6.

Recent form

AFC Bournemouth
W W L L D
current-season league; most recent first
Arsenal FC
W W W L W
current-season league; most recent first

2026-27 English Premier League standings

Positions are scoped to 2026-27 English Premier League; unrelated groups are excluded.

Sunderland

played
6
points
4
overall
1-1-4
position
17

AFC Bournemouth

played
6
points
3
overall
0-3-3
position
18

Tottenham Hotspur

played
6
points
3
overall
0-3-3
position
19

Manchester City FC

played
6
points
18
position
1

Arsenal FC

played
6
points
15
position
2

Brighton & Hove Albion FC

played
6
points
13
position
3

Participants to watch

Arsenal FC vs AFC Bournemouth: TIMED.

  • • Arsenal FC
  • • AFC Bournemouth

What a result could mean

  • • AFC Bournemouth would move from 9 to 12 points with a win; with every other points total held unchanged, that corresponds to position 6.

What happens next

  • • AFC Bournemouth would move from 9 to 12 points with a win; with every other points total held unchanged, that corresponds to position 6.

Venue / location

  • • England

Sources: Competition information · checked 10/27/2026

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Updated Oct 30, 2026, 7:01 AM

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