Recent-results contrast
Verified source factIpswich Town FC: 2-1-7; Aston Villa FC: 4-1-5 across last 10 league matches.
FOOTBALL
Ipswich Town FC
Aston Villa FC
Ipswich Town FC vs Aston Villa FC
England · Sat, Nov 28, 2026, 5:30 PM
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Football
Ipswich Town FCAston Villa FC
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FansSpace Intelligence
Validated forecast + verified evidenceFansSpace Snapshot · what matters now
Aston Villa FC have a narrow statistical edge
Season win rate separates the participants most clearly: Ipswich Town FC 40% versus Aston Villa FC 25%, using the displayed verified samples. The released model nevertheless weighs the full evaluated factor set and makes aston villa fc have a narrow statistical edge.
Aston Villa FC have a narrow statistical edgeSeason win rate: Ipswich Town FC 40% vs Aston Villa FC 25%Ipswich Town FC 2-1-7; Aston Villa FC 4-1-5 in their latest verified league sample.
The FansSpace Edge
Validated predictionAston Villa FC have a narrow statistical edge
Season win rate separates the participants most clearly: Ipswich Town FC 40% versus Aston Villa FC 25%, using the displayed verified samples.
Ipswich Town FC28%
Draw23%
Aston Villa FC49%
Reconciled comparison
Season win rate
40%Ipswich Town FC · n=5
25%Aston Villa FC · n=4
Average points margin
-0.8 pointsIpswich Town FC · n=5
-1.25 pointsAston Villa FC · n=4
Average points scored
1.4 pointsIpswich Town FC · n=5
1 pointsAston Villa FC · n=4
Average points conceded
2.2 pointsIpswich Town FC · n=5
2.25 pointsAston Villa FC · n=4
FansSpace Momentum
Season win rate momentum
Every point is a time-ordered verified event. Lines connect observations only; they are not smoothed or projected.
Ipswich Town FC fell from 100% to 0%. Aston Villa FC rose from 0% to 100%.
Ipswich Town FC · n=5Aston Villa FC · n=4
8/22/2026 → 9/19/2026Axis 0–100 percent
Accessible observation details
- Ipswich Town FC · 8/22/2026 · 100 percent · W
- Ipswich Town FC · 8/30/2026 · 0 percent · L
- Ipswich Town FC · 9/4/2026 · 0 percent · L
- Ipswich Town FC · 9/12/2026 · 100 percent · W
- Ipswich Town FC · 9/19/2026 · 0 percent · L
- Aston Villa FC · 8/23/2026 · 0 percent · L
- Aston Villa FC · 8/31/2026 · 0 percent · L
- Aston Villa FC · 9/12/2026 · 0 percent · L
- Aston Villa FC · 9/19/2026 · 100 percent · W
FansSpace Match DNA
What makes this matchup distinctive
Attack versus resistance
FansSpace calculationIpswich Town FC average 1.00 goals scored per match against an Aston Villa FC record of 2.00 conceded; the reverse matchup is 1.70 scored versus 2.20 conceded.
Venue-specific pressure
FansSpace calculationIpswich Town FC's latest 10 verified home matches produced 1-0-9; Aston Villa FC's latest 10 verified away matches produced 3-3-4.
Latest verified meeting
Verified source factAston Villa FC 1-1 Ipswich Town FC on 15 Feb 2025.
FansSpace What to Watch
Factors that could matter
- 1
Recency-weighted home and away scoring
Venue can change scoring and win rates, so the model evaluates the role each participant has in this fixture.
tested model factor
- 2
Chronological opponent-adjusted team rating
It discounts results earned against weaker opposition, making recent records more comparable.
tested model factor
- 3
Recent-results contrast
Ipswich Town FC: 2-1-7; Aston Villa FC: 4-1-5 across last 10 league matches.
descriptive contrast
FansSpace Outcome Paths
Most plausible scorelines
The leading scorelines use fitted goal intensities. Their probabilities are distinct paths and are not resampled winner probabilities.
Expected total: 3.1 goals · 80% fitted range 1.0 to 5.0 · n=6,098
Ipswich Town FC 1–1 Aston Villa FC10.5%
Ipswich Town FC 1–2 Aston Villa FC9.4%
Ipswich Town FC 0–1 Aston Villa FC7.9%
Ipswich Town FC 0–2 Aston Villa FC7.1%
Ipswich Town FC 2–1 Aston Villa FC7.0%
Behind the Insight · how FansSpace knows this
Evidence and calculation
Sources: OpenFootball, FansSpace validated model output.
Observation period: 8/23/2026–9/19/2026.
Football scoring model: estimates each team’s scoring rate from earlier results, opponent strength and home/away effects, then converts possible scorelines into win, draw and loss chances.
In an internal time-ordered test of 786 past events, this model performed better than its comparison model. That is useful evidence, but it is not an independent audit or a promise about this event.
Quality and limitations
Internal chronological test: 786 held-out forecasts · Apr 26, 2023–Sep 20, 2026.
Brier score 0.584 · Recorded comparison benchmark 0.667 · calibration gap 2.5%.
The verified match count differs between participants; each denominator is shown.
Composition fansspace-intelligence-composition-v2 · calculated 10/27/2026, 8:13:04 PM · freshness delayed.
FansSpace Event Companion · weeks away
Your event briefing
Latest news & context
- 1.Official status: TIMED
- 2.Ipswich Town FC vs Aston Villa FC: TIMED
Participants to watch
Ipswich Town FC vs Aston Villa FC: TIMED.
- • Ipswich Town FC
- • Aston Villa FC
History & records
- • Founded: 1894
Venue / location
- • England
Fan community
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Updated Oct 27, 2026, 6:59 PM
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