FOOTBALL

Newcastle United FC

Arsenal FC

Newcastle United FC vs Arsenal FC

England · Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 5:30 PM

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Football

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Newcastle United FCArsenal FC

Original source

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FansSpace Intelligence

Validated forecast + verified evidence

FansSpace Snapshot · what matters now

Arsenal FC are favourites

Average points margin separates the participants most clearly: Arsenal FC 0.8 points versus Newcastle United FC 0 points, using the displayed verified samples. The released model nevertheless weighs the full evaluated factor set and makes arsenal fc are favourites.

Arsenal FC are favouritesAverage points margin: Newcastle United FC 0 points vs Arsenal FC 0.8 pointsNewcastle United FC 4-3-3; Arsenal FC 9-0-1 in their latest verified league sample.

The FansSpace Edge

Validated prediction

Arsenal FC are favourites

Average points margin separates the participants most clearly: Arsenal FC 0.8 points versus Newcastle United FC 0 points, using the displayed verified samples.

Newcastle United FC26%

Draw23%

Arsenal FC51%

Reconciled comparison

Average points margin

0 pointsNewcastle United FC · n=5

0.8 pointsArsenal FC · n=5

Average points conceded

1.8 pointsNewcastle United FC · n=5

0.8 pointsArsenal FC · n=5

Season win rate

40%Newcastle United FC · n=5

80%Arsenal FC · n=5

Average points scored

1.8 pointsNewcastle United FC · n=5

1.6 pointsArsenal FC · n=5

FansSpace Momentum

Season win rate momentum

FansSpace calculation

Every point is a time-ordered verified event. Lines connect observations only; they are not smoothed or projected.

Newcastle United FC rose from 0% to 100%. Arsenal FC fell from 100% to 0%.

Newcastle United FC · n=5Arsenal FC · n=5

8/21/2026 → 9/19/2026Axis 0–100 percent

Accessible observation details

Newcastle United FC · 8/23/2026 · 0 percent · D
Newcastle United FC · 8/29/2026 · 100 percent · W
Newcastle United FC · 9/5/2026 · 0 percent · D
Newcastle United FC · 9/14/2026 · 0 percent · L
Newcastle United FC · 9/19/2026 · 100 percent · W
Arsenal FC · 8/21/2026 · 100 percent · W
Arsenal FC · 8/31/2026 · 100 percent · W
Arsenal FC · 9/6/2026 · 100 percent · W
Arsenal FC · 9/12/2026 · 100 percent · W
Arsenal FC · 9/19/2026 · 0 percent · L

FansSpace Match DNA

What makes this matchup distinctive

Recent-results contrast

Verified source fact

Newcastle United FC: 4-3-3; Arsenal FC: 9-0-1 across last 10 league matches.

Attack versus resistance

FansSpace calculation

Newcastle United FC average 1.60 goals scored per match against an Arsenal FC record of 0.50 conceded; the reverse matchup is 1.60 scored versus 1.50 conceded.

Venue-specific pressure

FansSpace calculation

Newcastle United FC's latest 10 verified home matches produced 4-2-4; Arsenal FC's latest 10 verified away matches produced 6-2-2.

Latest verified meeting

Verified source fact

Arsenal FC 1-0 Newcastle United FC on 25 Apr 2026.

FansSpace What to Watch

Factors that could matter

1
Recency-weighted home and away scoring
Venue can change scoring and win rates, so the model evaluates the role each participant has in this fixture.
tested model factor
2
Chronological opponent-adjusted team rating
It discounts results earned against weaker opposition, making recent records more comparable.
tested model factor
3
Recent-results contrast
Newcastle United FC: 4-3-3; Arsenal FC: 9-0-1 across last 10 league matches.
descriptive contrast

Behind the Insight · how FansSpace knows this

Evidence and calculation

Sources: OpenFootball, FansSpace validated model output.

Observation period: 8/23/2026–9/19/2026.

Football scoring model: estimates each team’s scoring rate from earlier results, opponent strength and home/away effects, then converts possible scorelines into win, draw and loss chances.

In an internal time-ordered test of 786 past events, this model performed better than its comparison model. That is useful evidence, but it is not an independent audit or a promise about this event.

Quality and limitations

Internal chronological test: 786 held-out forecasts · Apr 26, 2023–Sep 20, 2026.

Brier score 0.584 · Recorded comparison benchmark 0.667 · calibration gap 2.5%.

Outcome Paths are withheld until a validated sport-state distribution adds evidence beyond the released forecast.

Composition fansspace-intelligence-composition-v2 · calculated 10/13/2026, 6:46:49 PM · freshness delayed.

FansSpace Event Companion · weeks away

Your event briefing

Match snapshot

Newcastle United FC

points: 8
position: 11

Arsenal FC

points: 15
position: 2

Why it matters

Current verified standings: Arsenal FC P2 (5-1); Newcastle United FC P11 (2-2-2).

Standings context

Manchester City FC

played: 6
points: 18
position: 1

Arsenal FC

played: 6
points: 15
position: 2

Brighton & Hove Albion FC

played: 6
points: 13
position: 3

Ipswich Town FC

played: 6
points: 9
position: 10

Newcastle United FC

played: 6
points: 8
position: 11

Crystal Palace FC

played: 6
points: 7
position: 12

Participants to watch

Newcastle United FC vs Arsenal FC: TIMED.

• Newcastle United FC
• Arsenal FC

Venue / location

• England

Sources: Competition information · checked 10/27/2026

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Updated Oct 29, 2026, 11:57 AM

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